The Mathematics of Financial Independence (FIRE)
Financial Independence, Retire Early (FIRE) is a movement centered on aggressive saving, mindful spending, and low-cost index fund investing to retire decades ahead of the traditional age of 65.
1. The 4% Rule & The FIRE Number
Originating from the landmark 1998 Trinity Study, the 4% Rule states that a retiree can withdraw 4% of their initial portfolio value in year one (and adjust upward for inflation every year thereafter) with a 95%+ probability that the portfolio will never be depleted over a 30-year horizon.
FIRE Number = Annual Living Expenses × 25 (assuming 4% SWR)
2. The Different Flavors of FIRE
- Lean FIRE: Living frugally on minimal annual expenses ($30k - $45k/year).
- Standard FIRE: Maintaining an average comfortable middle-class lifestyle ($50k - $80k/year).
- Fat FIRE: Retiring with an abundant luxury budget ($100k - $200k+/year) with extensive travel.
- Coast FIRE: Having accumulated enough investment principal at a young age that compound interest alone will reach your target by age 65 without saving another penny.